July 18, 2007

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Today's Top Stories
1. Qwest guns for 40 Gigs
2. OPASTCO chairman just dogs it
3. Feasting on SunRocket's customer base
4. Yipes relies on Reliance investment
5. Deal rumors: Buyer interest in 3Com; Huawei and CAC

Also Noted: Spotlight On... Citizens Communications; A telecom earnings preview; Airwaves auction plan under fire; and much more...



The changing telco landscape
Are there any telcos left? That may be the question you hear as service provider mergers and acquisitions increasingly become a fact of life. Ask someone who doesn't follow the telecom industry too closely how many telcos there are, and the answer is likely to be two, maybe three (if the person you're asking lives west of the Mississippi).

However, the fact is that telcos aren't disappearing. There are literally hundreds of them in the U.S. and many more beyond. They are all sizes, operating in the range of 100 access lines on up to 100,000, 1 million and more. It's true that their network technologies and services are changing in some ways that may lead us to think of them not first as telcos. It's also true that many of them were not founding members of the telco club, but if that were the only distinction used to identify the real telcos, no one would be in that club--the nature and structure of even those earliest companies has changed so much.

As the traditional telcos charge into data and video, new names enter the voice market, and everyone looks at how to integrate wireless, our fear, driven by politically-correct sensitivities, is not to call anyone by too-limiting a name. Ultimately, we're just too hung up (a telco pun, in case it went unnoticed) on labels. There are a lot of different services in telecom, and a lot of different service providers. What they have in common is not a collective past, but a collective interest in the future of telecom and the role they can play in it. Use the term "telco" only among friends if you wish, but if there's a description for the kind of company positioned to drive and take advantage of what's next in telecom, a telco fits that description as well, or better, than anything else. --Dan


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1. Qwest guns for 40 Gigs

Qwest Communications, possibly looking to improve its position versus other network operators involved in the federal government's massive Networx upgrade project, has quadrupled capacity on its nationwide fiber backbone to 40 Gbps. Qwest won pieces of both the Networx Universal and Networx Enterprise contracts earlier this year, along with other carriers such as AT&T, Verizon Communications and Level 3 Communications.

Denver-based Qwest has had quite a year so far, having made progress on its financial recovery while seeing its former CEO, Joe Nacchio, convicted of insider trading, and current CEO Dick Notebaert abruptly announce his retirement (Notebaert continues to stay on board until Qwest finds a new chief.) Another three executives announced their retirements in recent months, though Qwest did name a new vice president of federal relations, Shirley Bloomfield, this week. Amid all the activity, Qwest says the network capacity upgrade was simply a response to direct customer needs, and not a requirement of the Networx deal, but buttering up the feds couldn't hurt, right?

For more on Qwest's capacity boost:
- read this article from Telecommunications

And further coverage of the Bloomfield hiring:
- check out this Denver Post post


2. OPASTCO chairman just dogs it

Roger Nishi, the new chairman of the Organization for the Promotion and Advancement of Small Telecommunications Companies, made a memorable entrance during the trade group's annual conference in Anchorage, AK, this week--dressed as an Inuit and riding on a sled pulled by two sled dogs.

But, Nishi, who also is vice president of industry relations for Waitsfield and Champlain Valley Telecom in Vermont, quickly did away with any notions that he'll only be doggin' it as OPASTCO's new leader. He suggested in his opening address that the group needs to be more active on behalf of its rural telco constituents, and will continue to fight against proposed Universal Service Fund changes now before the Federal Communications Commission.

Still the fight against USF reform may be a futile one. Many small telcos and wireless service providers do need USF money in order to keep from passing significant costs to their customers, but it doesn't help that the process of gaining USF credentials and receiving money is broadly viewed as lacking stringency. Like a presidential election in which the popular vote doesn't necessarily decide the winner, small telcos may vastly out-number larger ones, but the big boys and their lobbyists still have the clout and the FCC's ear on this one.

For more about Nishi's OPASTCO appearance:
- read this story from Telephony

Also: Here's a Q&A with Nishi in Telephony's supplement The Independent


3. Feasting on SunRocket's customer base

The creditors of defunct VoIP service provider SunRocket are trying to reach a deal with another service provider to find a new home for SunRocket's 200,000 or so existing customers. Meanwhile, apart from that effort, telcos ranging from VoIP pioneers like Vonage to former Bell companies like AT&T are busily pitching the left-behind customers themselves.

So far, SunRocket is offering precious little info about what went wrong, as well as whether or not customers who already paid the $199/year flat service fee so heavily promoted by SunRocket will get any money back. It's possible SunRocket was giving away too much in the way of service capabilities for a low price, but the broader lessons from its demise may be that the VoIP business is no longer one for one-trick ponies, and that the overall window of opportunity is closing as old-school telcos like AT&T and Verizon push further into the market and muscle up against the newbies--whether by legal or purely competitive means.

For more on the SunRocket saga:
- read this follow-up from the Wall Street Journal (Sub. req.)


4. Yipes relies on Reliance investment

Following its $300 million bid to acquire Yipes Enterprise Services, India's Reliance Communications may spend an additional $200 million to polish its new gem in the hopes of creating a larger, faster return on its total investment. The money could be used to boost Yipes's annual capex, as well as to hire new staff and expand in markets throughout the world.

The Carrier Ethernet market has become a hotly-competitive one in recent years, and Infonetics Research has said it could be a $25 billion market by 2010. Having said that, Yipes is a relative small fry in a U.S. market led by telcos such as AT&T, Verizon Business and Qwest, as well as pure-play aggressors like Cogent. For the time being, its market slot may be that of a secondary choice for enterprises not wanting to award all their business to one carrier. Though, in a market headed for $25 billion, who'd complain?

The sideline to this story is that international carriers like Reliance are increasingly taking more than a rooting interest in the U.S. market. BT, Korea's SK Telecom and others have made the plunge, but look for more foreign players, especially from Asia, to make similar moves.

For more about the Yipes deal:
- read this article in Light Reading


5. Deal rumors: Buyer interest in 3Com; Huawei and CAC

Telecom vendor consolidation has been continuing at a healthy pace since AT&T's 2006 acquisition of BellSouth--which signaled a shift in the telco universe toward fewer carrier customers and (probably) less telco capex for the time being. Now, comes rumors of two more possible deals. 3Com supposedly has drawn acquisition interest from parties that include private equity firms and Nortel Networks. Meanwhile, another report suggested Huawei may be interested in acquiring Carrier Access Corp.

The 3Com possibility is intriguing in part because if it ends up in private hands, it would follow not long on the heels of the acquisition of 3Com competitor Avaya by a private equity firm. Private equity money has been flowing into public telecom vendors and service providers of late, with Alltel having agreed to be bought by Goldman Sachs and TPG Capital, and Bell Canada being the target of a private consortium. 

What's less clear is how privatization may change these firms. Will the PE guys strip-mine the firms' cash flow resources to realize big, but short-term margins, or will they actually invest to create more long-term value for another eventual sale or spin-off?

For more about the 3Com rumors:
- read this blog entry from The Wall Street Journal (Sub. req.)

For speculation on Huawei's potential interest in CAC:
- check out this Light Reading blog entry


ALSO NOTED

SERVICE PROVIDER SPOTLIGHT... Citizens Communications
Former Microsoft executive Maggie Wilderotter, who also had stints in cable, wireless and interactive TV ventures, has been heading up this Connecticut-based rural telco for the past two years. And when we say rural, we mean rural--the company has more than 2 million access lines in 23 states, but only an average of about 16 access lines per square mile. It has more than 350,000 high-speed Internet customers and about 5400 employees. Telephony article

> Why the 700 MHz auction plan prompted one advocate to say "AT&T has got to get over this Google-on-the-brain thing." Article (Reg. req.)

> Telecom service provider and equipment vendors stand to reap some good news from imminent second quarter earnings reports. Article

> Are companies providing prepaid calling cards cheating their customers? Article

And finally... The newest trend in online dating is to pick up the phone. Article

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