Week in research: $1.6B Ethernet access device market predicted; Death of the desk phone approaches

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Brighter future for Ethernet access: Although the Ethernet access device market saw a 4 percent dip in the first half of 2012 compared to the first half of 2011, Infonetics Research forecasts that the market will top $1.6 billion by 2016. That's because Ethernet still has an important role to play in the TDM-to-IP transition, and particularly in the mobile backhaul segment. "With so many operators moving to fiber as they upgrade building sites and mobile backhaul from TDM to Ethernet, fiber-based EADs will remain a much bigger market than copper EADs," said Michael Howard, principal analyst for carrier networks and co-founder of Infonetics Research. "That said, it is clear that a growing number of mobile backhaul operators and transport providers are turning to EFM (Ethernet in the First Mile) bonded copper technology, taking advantage of its extended reach and capacity in many applications and locations where fiber is too expensive for the return on investment. In fact, EFM bonded copper EAD sales were up while fiber and Ethernet over TDM EAD sales were down in the first half of 2012." ADVA (XETRA: ADV.DE) led the market in 1H 2012, followed by Ciena Nasdaq: CIEN), Overture, and Actelis. News release

Infonetics Ethernet access devices forecast

100G flame spreads: The 100G spark caught and grew rapidly in the third quarter 2012, Dell'Oro Group reports, with a record number of 100 Gigabit Ethernet router ports shipped worldwide as network operators expanded deployments in their backbone networks. This was a good quarter for router vendors in the segment, with Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) leading the pack followed by Juniper (NYSE: JNPR), Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU), Huawei and Brocade (Nasdaq: BRCD). "Shipments of 100 Gigabit Ethernet for Internet-class routers have nearly tripled over the first nine months of the year and are on track to generate about $500 million in router sales for 2012," said Shin Umeda, vice president at Dell'Oro Group. "We expect demand to almost double again next year, making for a very significant opportunity for router manufacturers." News release

VoIP be not proud: Will the "death of the desk phone" be the most disruptive force in voice services? Seventy-four percent of respondents in an ATLANTIC-ACM survey commissioned by inetwork said yes. As more workers opt to bring in mobile devices to the workplace, the landline office phone is becoming increasingly obsolete, the survey suggests. "While certain resellers will claim there is still money to be made in Plain Old Telephone Service (POTS), the overall market continues to decline," said Dr. Judy Reed Smith, CEO of ATLANTIC-ACM. "End-user migration to wireless, VoIP and everything in between will drive shrinking demand for traditional wholesale voice services, leaving those providers unwilling to deviate from 'business-as-usual' in the dust." The migration to VoIP over LTE was ranked the second most disruptive element by respondents, followed by the death of POTS as IP-based technologies take over grandma's old phone line. News release

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