FMC will make real progress

Carrier success with fixed-mobile convergence has been spotty at best. Several overseas trials and services have met with different degrees of success, and except for two or three high-profile trials in the U.S., it hasn't made much progress here. There are still a variety of ways to do it, with Unlicensed Mobile Access technology, femtocells, a combination of both, or the IP Multimedia Subsystem Voice Call Continuity specification as options.

Critics say there aren't enough dual-mode handsets, but in 2008, we'll see that excuse buried under a pile of new devices. We'll also see, I believe, a major cable TV company broadly launch an FMC service ahead of any wireline telco competitors. As for the major telcos, I don't think the competitive pressure is strong enough--or the technology choices clear enough--for them to act on a broad scale yet.

Also, I think 2008 will be the Year of the Femtocell, as carrier evaluations come to a head and overall costs come down.

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