Driven by 200 Gbps wavelength shipments, coherent DWDM revenue will reach $16 billion by 2023, according to a report.
Dell'Oro Group's report said that 200 Gbps wavelengths would comprise the highest share of shipments in three years, while 800 Gbps wavelength shipments will start to ramp up next year.
“The 100 Gbps growth cycle is behind us,” said Jimmy Yu, vice president at Dell’Oro Group, in a statement. “This doesn’t mean that coherent 100 Gbps wavelengths are no longer needed. It is just that with new 60 Gbaud and soon to be released 90 Gbaud-based line cards, the reach of 200 Gbps and 400 Gbps coherent signals can reach much further and help service providers lower their cost-per-bit, which we consider excellent reasons to choose 200 plus Gbps wavelengths.
"We are predicting 100 Gbps wavelength shipments to decline during the next five years, while 200 plus Gbps wavelength shipments grow at a 50% compounded annual growth rate."
Over the next five years in optical transport, the total WDM market, which includes metro and long haul systems, is forecast to grow at a 5% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR.) Dell'Oro's research also said that WDM metro would slightly outpace DWDM long-haul during the forecast period. Disaggregated WDM systems are projected to exceed $3 billion in revenue by 2023.