Driven by spending on new 10 Gbps EPON and XGS-PON deployments, the PON equipment market is forecast to hit $7.3 billion by 2023, according to a report by Dell'Oro Group.
Dell'Oro Group's report also cited service providers' desire to continue maximizing existing 2.5 Gbps GPON networks as another factor for the PON equipment market growth. Telecom operators and ISPs are focused on symmetric 10 Gbps PON standard XGS-PON for their next-generation deployments.
“Fiber deployments continue to expand around the world, thanks to increased competition and an improved funding environment for both public and private networks,” said Dell'Oro Group's Jeff Heynen, research director, in a statement. “Today’s XGS-PON trials are quickly moving to production deployments, positioning operators to compete with cable DOCSIS 3.1 networks."
Spending on cable infrastructure will only reach $1.6 billion by 2023, as cable operators ease their Converged Cable Access Platform (CCAP) purchases, while focusing on their Distributed Access Architecture (DAA) deployments. DAA, which is sure to be a focal point once again at the next SCTE Cable-Tec Expo this fall, has been slow out of the starter blocks for the cable industry.
DAA will help cable operators' transition to all IP services, which in turn helps them orchestrate and activate all of the services from a converged infrastructure.
Speaking at Cisco Live last month, Cisco's Jonathan Davidson, senior vice president and general manager of Cisco's Service Provider Business, said a split has emerged among cable operators, such as Comcast, that are actively pursuing DAA and Remote PHY and those that aren't.
In terms of broadband, the Dell'Oro Group's Broadband Access 5-Year Forecast Report projected that the broadband access market would have compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4% by 2023.
The report also said that VDSL Profile 35b and Gfast will offset some, but not all of the revenue loss from declining ADSL and VDSL port shipments. Some major Gfast deployments are already seeing signs of shrinking, as operators increase their investments in fiber, according to the report.